Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Climate change vulnerability of sustainable forest management in the Eastern Alps

Considering climatic uncertainties in management planning is a prerequisite for sustainable forest management (SFM). The aim of the study was to evaluate climate change vulnerability of the current SFM strategy for commercial forests managed by the Austrian Federal Forests. To that end vulnerability indicators were defined in a stakeholder process (selected indicators were productivity, timber and carbon stocks, biodiversity, disturbances, a tree species’ position in fundamental niche space, silvicultural flexibility and cost intensity) and their performance under climate change scenarios assessed with an ecosystem model. Multi criteria analysis techniques were employed in a partial aggregation of indicators to locate forest stands on a vulnerability surface. Results revealed high vulnerability particularly in the second half of the twenty-first century, where 39.6% of the 164.550 ha study area were assessed highly vulnerable to climate change, indicating a strong decline in the functions and services represented by the indicator system. Water-limited sites on calcareous bedrock were most negatively affected whereas assessment units at higher altitudes responded predominately positive to climate warming. The presented approach, transparently integrating multiple management objectives and allowing a quantitative comparison of vulnerabilities between sites and management strategies, contributes to the development of operational and efficient climate change adaptation measures in forest management.     

Political orientation moderates Americans’ beliefs and concern about climate change

I offer some theoretical insights to help us better understand the moderator effect of political orientation that Larry Hamilton and others have found in recent years. Reflexive modernization theory highlights an emerging tension between those who direct attention to the negative consequences of industrial capitalism such as climate change (e.g., the scientific community and environmental organizations) and those who defend the economic system against such critiques (e.g., the conservative movement). Political divisions in the American public increasingly map onto these societal divisions between critics and defenders of the industrial capitalist order—especially for the issue of climate change. This alignment is facilitated by increased polarization among political elites and balkanization of the news media. Strong evidence of the moderator effect is consistent with the expectations of information processing theory and elite cues hypothesis from political science. Recent empirical findings in political psychology and neuroscience also seem pertinent for explaining this moderator effect. I end by outlining a few implications for climate change research and communication.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

Climate change,theory of planned behavior and values: a structural equation model with mediation analysis

An online survey about climate change was conducted 2008/2009 among all university members (N = 3541). Using the Theory of Planned Behavior and Cultural Theory within a structural equation modeling approach, one main goal was to explain climate-friendly behavioral intentions and the underlying psychological processes comprehensively and to show the interdependencies between both approaches. The model explained 72% of the variance in Intentions to use public transport. Attitude towards public transport (beta = 0.67, p < .001) most strongly influenced Intentions followed by Subjective Norms (beta = 0.23, p < .001). In turn, Attitudes and Norm were explained by the value types Egalitarian, Individualist and Fatalist (24% and 14% respectively). These value types are mediated through Attitudes and Subjective Norms. Recommendations regarding the support of climate friendly behavior are formulated.     

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature

Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk management practices.     

Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys

Comparative analysis of the energy and carbon balances of wood vs. non-wood products is a complex issue. In this paper we discuss the definition of an appropriate functional unit and the establishment of effective system boundaries in terms of activity, time and space, with an emphasis on the comparison of buildings. The functional unit can be defined at the level of building component, complete building, or services provided by the built environment. Energy use or carbon emissions per unit of mass or volume of material is inadequate as a functional unit because equal masses or volumes of different materials do not fulfil the same function. Activity-based system boundaries include life cycle processes such as material production, product operation, and post-use material management. If the products compared are functionally equivalent, such that the impacts occurring during the operation phase are equal, we suggest that this phase may be dropped from the analysis allowing a focus on material flows. The use of wood co-products as biofuel can be analytically treated through system expansion, and compared to an alternative of providing the same energy service with fossil fuels. The assumed production of electricity used for material processing is another important energy-related issue, and we suggest that using marginal production data is more appropriate than average production. Temporal system boundaries include such aspects of the wood life cycle as the dynamics of forest growth including regeneration and saturation, the availability of residue biofuels at different times, and the duration of carbon storage in products. The establishment of spatial boundaries can be problematic, because using wood-based materials instead of non-wood materials requires more land area to capture solar energy and accumulate biomass. We discuss several possible approaches to meet this challenge, including the intensification of land use to increase the time rate of biomass production. Finally, we discuss issues related to scaling up an analysis of wood substitution from the micro-level to the macro-level of national, regional or global.     

Aircraft Observations of Sea-Surface Turbulent Fluxes Near the California Coast

Aircraft turbulence data from the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network project were analyzed and compared to the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk parametrization of turbulent fluxes in an ocean area near the coast of California characterized by complex atmospheric flow. Turbulent fluxes measured at about 35 m above the sea surface using the eddy-correlation method were lower than bulk estimates under unstable and stable atmospheric stratification for all but light winds. Neutral turbulent transfer coefficients were used in this comparison because they remove the effects of mean atmospheric conditions and atmospheric stability. Spectral analysis suggested that kilometre-scale longitudinal rolls affect significantly turbulence measurements even near the sea surface, depending on sampling direction. Cross-wind sampling tended to capture all the available turbulent energy. Vertical soundings showed low boundary-layer depths and high flux divergence near the sea surface in the case of sensible heat flux but minimal flux divergence for the momentum flux. Cross-wind sampling and flux divergence were found to explain most of the observed discrepancies between the measured and bulk flux estimates. At low wind speeds the drag coefficient determined with eddy correlation and an inertial dissipation method after corrections were applied still showed high values compared to bulk estimates. This discrepancy correlated with the dominance of sea swell, which was a usually observed condition under low wind speeds. Under stable atmospheric conditions measured sensible heat fluxes, which usually have low values over the ocean, were possibly affected by measurement errors and deviated significantly from bulk estimates.     

Urban Dispersion Modelling and Experiments in the Daytime and Nighttime Atmosphere

An analytical model of atmospheric dispersion in urban areas in both daytime and nighttime conditions is presented. The model is based on a Gaussian formulation where the horizontal and vertical diffusion coefficients are determined according to analytical theories. The model is validated with dispersion measurements from field experiments conducted in Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, St. Louis and London, U.K. The theory is in good agreement with the data for both daytime and nighttime conditions. The data support the conclusion that the magnitude of the nighttime stratification in the urban atmosphere is weak; however, its effects on dispersion are not negligible. The predicted existence of two distinct dispersion regimes, in the near and in the far field, is also confirmed by the data. The good collapse of the data suggests that urban dispersion is governed by the characteristic length scales of atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, rather than urban canopy length scales that are more likely to affect dispersion only in the vicinity of the source.